The Liberal Dissenter

Which seats will the Liberal Democrats gain or lose on 5th May?

It's hard to tell from the nationwide opinion polls, since there will not be a uniform swing across the whole country. Perhaps the punters have a better idea - after all, they're putting their money where their mouths are.

Thanks to this betting portal on the Political Betting site, you can now compare odds for each of the individual constituencies where a betting market has opened up.

Before we look at the list, some health warnings. First, this posting is a snapshot based on current odds (which in many cases are very narrow), and the betting market is by its nature in a state of flux. Second, relatively little money has been placed so far, so you can take the current odds with a pinch of salt. This will change as we get nearer to polling day, when the betting odds are likely to become a more reliable guide than the opinion polls. Third, there isn't yet a betting market for all the marginal constituencies, though new markets may open later in the campaign. Hence no mention yet of Newbury, Eastbourne or Aberdeen South, for example.

Here's how the Liberal Democrats are doing in the marginal seats, according to the punters.

Vulnerable Lib Dem-held seats:

Brecon and Radnor - neck and neck between Lib Dems and the Tories
Brent East - neck and neck between Lib Dems and Labour
Cheadle - neck and neck between Lib Dems and Tories
Eastleigh - neck and neck between Lib Dems and Tories
Guildford - neck and neck between Lib Dems and Tories
Hereford - neck and neck between Lib Dems and Tories
Ludlow - neck and neck between Lib Dems and Tories
Mid Dorset and North Poole - neck and neck between Lib Dems and Tories
North Norfolk - Lib Dem hold
Richmond Park - Lib Dem hold
Romsey - neck and neck between Lib Dems and Tories
Somerton and Frome - Tory gain
Torridge and West Devon - Lib Dem hold
Weston-super-Mare - neck and neck between Lib Dems and Tories

Birmingham Yardley - Lib Dem gain from Labour
Bristol West - Lib Dem gain from Labour
Cambridge - Labour hold
Cardiff Central - Lib Dem gain from Labour
Haltemprice and Howden - Tory hold
Inverness, etc. - Lib Dem gain from Labour [on new boundaries]
Isle of Wight - Tory hold
Maidenhead - Tory hold
North Dorset - Tory hold
Oldham E. and Saddleworth - neck and neck between Lib Dems and Labour
Orpington - neck and neck between Lib Dems and Tories
South West Surrey - Tory hold
Taunton - neck and neck between Lib Dems and Tories
West Dorset - Tory hold
Westmoreland and Lonsdale - Tory hold

# posted by Simon Titley @ 6:12 pm