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Monday, November 01, 2004


Chicken's entrails

If, despite my posting yesterday, you are still avidly reading the tea leaves and poking about in the chicken's entrails for clues about whether Bush or Kerry will win, may I recommend the Electoral Vote Predictor website (with thanks to Peter Black for recommending it).

It is the most thorough analysis I have seen online, frequently updated as fresh polling data comes in. And its author's prediction? "We have the most studied election in the history of the world. And what's the conclusion? Nobody knows."

So much for psephology.

In 2000, the American TV networks got their fingers burnt issuing premature declarations about how Florida had voted. This year, the networks have promised not to make provisional declarations for any state until after polls have closed on the West Coast. For those of you in Britain planning to sit up all night in front of the TV, the practical consequence is that you're unlikely to get much hard news before 4am at the earliest.

Stay logged on to the
Electoral Vote Predictor, however, and you may get the news a little earlier - assuming, of course, that there's a result. The site's author (an American living in Holland) promises, "I will stay up all night election night and update the site in real time. I am NOT promising to stay up until we know who the president is. I would definitely like to go to bed sometime during the month of November."

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