The Liberal Dissenter

The odds are moving in the Liberal Democrats' favour in many of the betting markets for individual target constituencies. Where are the punters currently predicting gains or losses?

As I reported in Monday's posting, this betting portal on the Political Betting website enables you to compare odds for each of the individual constituencies where a betting market has opened up. (If you do bet online, please go through the links on the Political Betting site – doing so earns a commission that helps pay for the running of this very useful site).

Let me repeat some health warnings. First, this posting is a snapshot based on current odds (which in many cases are very narrow), and the betting market is by its nature in a state of flux. Second, relatively little money has been placed so far, so you can take the current odds with a pinch of salt. This will change as we get nearer to polling day, when the betting odds are likely to become a more reliable guide than the opinion polls. Third, there isn't yet a betting market for all the marginal and target constituencies (still no market for Islington South, surprisingly, and nothing yet for Aberdeen South, Dunbartonshire East, Totnes or Wells), though new markets may open later in the campaign.

Here's how the Liberal Democrats will fare according to the punters. Constituencies where there has been a change since Monday in the predicted outcome are marked with an asterisk (*). Constituencies where a new betting market has opened since Monday are marked with a cross (+).

Vulnerable Lib Dem-held seats:

* Brecon and Radnor - Lib Dem hold
* Brent East - Lib Dem hold
* Cheadle - Lib Dem hold
+ Colchester – Lib Dem hold
* Eastleigh - Lib Dem hold
Guildford - neck and neck between Lib Dems and Tories
* Hereford - Lib Dem hold
+ Leicester South - neck and neck between Lib Dems and Labour
* Ludlow – Lib Dem hold
* Mid Dorset and North Poole – Lib Dem hold
+ Newbury – Lib Dem hold
* North Norfolk - neck and neck between Lib Dems and Tories
Richmond Park - Lib Dem hold
* Romsey – Lib Dem hold
* Somerton and Frome – Lib Dem hold
Torridge and West Devon - Lib Dem hold
Weston-super-Mare - neck and neck between Lib Dems and Tories

Birmingham Yardley - Lib Dem gain from Labour
Bristol West - Lib Dem gain from Labour
Cambridge - Labour hold
Cardiff Central - Lib Dem gain from Labour
+ Colne Valley – Labour hold (Lib Dems third)
+ Eastbourne – Lib Dem gain from Tory
+ Edinburgh South – Labour hold
+ Falmouth and Cambourne – Labour hold (Lib Dems not quoted)
+ Folkestone and Hythe – Tory hold
Haltemprice and Howden - Tory hold
+ Harborough - neck and neck between Lib Dems and Tories
+ Hornsey and Wood Green – Labour hold
Inverness, etc. - Lib Dem gain from Labour [on new boundaries]
Isle of Wight - Tory hold
Maidenhead - Tory hold
+ New Forest East – Tory hold
North Dorset - Tory hold
* Oldham East and Saddleworth - Lib Dem gain from Labour
* Orpington - Lib Dem gain from Tory
* South West Surrey - neck and neck between Lib Dems and Tories
Taunton - neck and neck between Lib Dems and Tories
* West Dorset - neck and neck between Lib Dems and Tories
+ Westbury - neck and neck between Lib Dems and Tories
Westmoreland and Lonsdale - Tory hold
+ Wiltshire North – Tory hold

# posted by Simon Titley @ 2:04 am